By Bambang Sabekti
Tanjung Priok port booked some positive performance and even created some records in the first quarter this year (2022Q1). Throughput, especially containers increased significantly, while productivity showed an improvement.
Likewise, the implementation of STID is quite successful as all stakeholders backed it up and gave their real support. And the trucks that transport containers are very roadworthy. The largest and most crowded port in Indonesia is very important for the door of world trade amid the twisting or disruption of the global supply chain, due to Covid 19 and the most updated of Russia – Ukraine War.
In terms of international throughput (exports and imports), Tanjung Priok continued to show positive trend. Figures have shown a significant growth in Q1, compared to previous years of 2021 and 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic began to spread. In January this year, the international throughput grew 17% from the month last year. The accumulated throughput in January and February this year also experienced growth of almost 13%. While the total throughput of International (export and import) in the first quarter of 2021 also increased growth by 9%.
With the “run rate” in the first quarter, I am optimistic that international throughput at Tanjung Priok Port will experience growth of approximately 13% in line with the drop of Covid 19 cases throughout the continents and the end of issue of scarcity of containers and vessel space as well.
Meanwhile, based on the Container Trade Statistics (CTS) report, looking at the growth rate of “YOY” (year on year), shows that global demand (“global demand”) decreased – 5.6%.
According to an analysis by Sea-Intelligence, only imports to Europe and exports from Africa have experienced marginal container volume growth. Exports from North America as well as exports from Oceania also showed negative growth figures and imported volumes in the “Indian Subcontinent” and in the Middle East region also fell compared to the Covid 19 pandemic.
The IMF, in its latest report, reported growth projections for 2022 and 2023, driven by the “spill-over” effect of the war in Ukraine. World trade growth was also revised down to 6.0% by 2022.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published its April 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. Titled “War Sets Back the Global Recovery”, it talks about how the global economic outlook has deteriorated significantly since the last projections in January.
The IMF has projected the global recovery will strengthen in the second quarter of 2022 after the short-term impact of the Omicron variant. But since then, the outlook has deteriorated, mainly because of the war in Ukraine, and the sanctions that followed. This macro-economic trend, while not directly aligned with the container shipping industry, is a good indicator of the general condition of the global economy, and can provide guidance for the direction of global trade.
The “Market Outlook” which is positive in Tanjung Priok, made several cruises launch new services in the first quarter . Maersk Line launched a new service from Jakarta to the US East Coast through several ports in China. Meanwhile, the well-known local company Meratus launched a new service for international loops from Jakarta, Surabaya, Semarang and directly to several Chinese ports. Understandably our most important trading partner is the PRC.
And most recently, the formulation of Shipping International PIL Headquartered in Singapore – support that was as “stretched” because of financial problems, is now struggling again after being supported by Temasek Group and with New Management, and re-operated its ships in Indonesia after a few years ago “pull out” – long before the occurrence of container and ship space – because sales continue to decline. which cannot cover its “operation cost”.
Now only Maersk is the only direct service deploy from Jakarta to North America (East Coast) with a very rational ship size (about 4,500-5000 teus). Just to remind, a few years ago CMA-CGM also had a direct service from Jakarta to America (but this one to the West Coast), but it was also “pulled out” a few years ago, long before the pandemic, because the “Load Factor” was inadequate, while the operation cost was very high and the size of the ship was quite large.
In my opinion, Maersk’s Direct Service ship is very “smart” and potentially will be sustainable”. Of course, this “main target” is cargo for America, but this service can also serve cargo to several ports in China from Jakarta as a ‘compliment’. This means that this service can also do a “double dip” meaning that from Jakarta it can load cargo to China Port, and after unloading, the ship can be loaded with cargo from China to America. More than 80% of cargo exports from Asia to the Americas are from China. Therefore, China always needs containers for its export. For this reason, in case, Maersk wants to send empty containers from Jakarta, if the condition is surplus (surplus location) can also use this service for “empty container repositioning” to China (Logistics opportunities approach).
The Russian and Ukrainian wars did prolong the global supply chain and resulted in a food crisis (supply of waiting wheat), energy (gas and oil supply disrupted) and global finance (which attracted inflation) but did not affect the container industry at Tanjong Priok Port, because we import wheat from them usually in the form of “bulk”.
Last but not least. Happy fasting and soon we will celebrate Eid. Apologies born inner.