The resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz eases immediate trade disruptions, but logistics players and experts warn lingering energy infrastructure damage could continue to pressure global supply chains and costs
The resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following a U.S.-Iran agreement has eased concerns over global trade disruptions, but logistics industry players warned that risks to supply chains remain as energy infrastructure damaged during the conflict could take years to recover.
Under a memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June, Iran agreed to allow merchant vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz free of charge for 60 days. The waterway had been effectively disrupted since late February, leaving nearly 600 vessels and around 20,000 seafarers stranded in Gulf waters.
The disruption affected about 20% of global oil trade, drove up logistics costs and insurance premiums, and pushed international freight rates higher.
Yukki Nugrahawan Hanafi, Senior Vice President of the International Federation of Freight Forwarders Associations (FIATA) and chairman of the advisory board of the Indonesian Logistics and Forwarders Association (ALFI), said the reopening of the route was a positive development but should not lead to complacency.
“The return of shipping activity is certainly good news for businesses. However, the current challenge extends beyond maritime security to the condition of energy infrastructure damaged during the conflict,” Yukki said.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, handling roughly one-fifth of global oil trade and a large share of liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf region.
“For Asian countries, including Indonesia, stability in the Strait of Hormuz is directly linked to energy availability, logistics costs, inflation and industrial competitiveness,” he said.
During the crisis, global oil prices rose sharply, while war-risk insurance premiums, freight costs and shipping route adjustments added pressure to supply chains. Brent crude prices climbed to around $106 per barrel before falling back to about $77 as tensions eased.
Yukki said a key risk often overlooked is the difference between the recovery of shipping routes and the restoration of energy facilities.
“Shipping lanes can reopen relatively quickly once security conditions improve. Energy infrastructure, however, requires extensive repairs, investment and operational testing before it can return to full capacity,” he said.
Industry concerns have been echoed by energy analysts. Research firm Rystad Energy estimates damage to Gulf energy infrastructure could reach $58 billion, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported damage to more than 40 oil and gas facilities across the region.
Some assets may require years to return to normal operations because of equipment shortages and limited specialist expertise.
“Even though tanker traffic has resumed, global energy production and distribution capacity may not immediately recover. That could keep energy prices volatile and continue to weigh on supply chain costs over the medium term,” Yukki said.
For Indonesia, the episode highlights the need to strengthen logistics and supply chain resilience through industrial downstream development, larger strategic energy reserves, stronger multimodal connectivity and more diversified sources of energy and critical raw materials.
“The Strait of Hormuz may be busy again, but the broader lesson is that energy security, infrastructure resilience and supply chain strength must continue to be reinforced. In an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment, the ability to maintain supply chain continuity will be a key determinant of national competitiveness and economic resilience,” Yukki said.